The pick: Europe 17, United States 11

    Writing from Medinah, Illinois
    Thursday, September 27, 2012

    Finally, golf.
    Finally, after about seven years in the making, the 39th Ryder Cup Match becomes serious on Friday morning at Medinah Country Club. And, U.S. captain Davis Love III’s wonderful sentiment aside, this is a match neither team wants to lose.
    The Americans have lost six of the last eight Cups. The Europeans have an uncanny way of taking individual matches that appear to favor the U.S. going in, and build momentum over the first two days that the Americans can’t overcome on Singles Sunday. With 1999 at The Country Club in Brookline, Mass., the notable exception.
    Unless Love has a feeling come Saturday night, it’s hard to imagine anything different happening this time. Often, the Friday morning matches set a tone that rings true through the closing ceremony, when the Europeans smile and the Americans cry.
    The action starts with foursomes, which Americans call alternate shot and rarely play. The Europeans don’t play it on their Tour either, but they have a way with the matches, and the records of Friday morning’s eight players lean heavily toward the visitors taking a lead.
    With the Americans listed first and Ryder Cup foursome records for all, here are the four matches:
    Match 1: Jim Furyk (3-5-2 in foursomes) and Brandt Snedeker (rookie) vs. Rory McIlroy (1-1-1) and Graeme McDowell (1-1-1).
    This might be the best U.S. chance for a victory in the morning. Snedeker’s as hot as they come, straight out of his Tour Championship / FedEx Cup sweep. Furyk is a fierce competitor. However, McIlroy is the world’s top-ranked player, and fellow Northern Irishman McDowell is the equal of Furyk as a gritty competitor. This has the feel of a halve going in.
    Match 2: Keegan Bradley (rookie) and Phil Mickelson (2-5-4) vs. Sergio Garcia (8-0-1) and Luke Donald (6-0-0).
    Garcia is both a player and an agent provocateur in the Ryder Cup, and Donald is Chicago’s European representative. Both have exemplary records in foursomes. Mickelson? Not so much. The key for him is to make sure Bradley doesn’t get flustered if Garcia channels his inner Seve and the Europeans win a few holes early. Europe is the heavy favorite.
    Match 3: Jason Dufner (rookie) and Zach Johnson (1-2-1) vs. Lee Westwood (7-2-4) and Francesco Molinari (rookie).
    European captain Jose Maria Olazabal pairs his rookie with a gritty veteran, and they end up playing against the least experienced American team. Europe has to be favored here, but Johnson won a Masters when nobody expected him to. The U.S. would be happy with a halve.
    Match 4: Tiger Woods (4-7-1) and Steve Stricker (1-1-0) vs. Ian Poulter (2-1-0) and Justin Rose (2-0-0).
    There could be fireworks in the morning finale if Woods, who conked a spectator with a drive on the 18th hole in Thursday’s practice round, keeps it in the fairway. He and Rose have the same teacher (Sean Foley), so there are no secrets there. Woods has been paired with Stricker more than anyone else in Ryder and Presidents cups, so there’s a comfort factor there. Poulter is the wild card. Logic says Europe, 1 up, or a halve.
    The summary: Expect Europe to get 2.5 or 3 points in the morning, putting the Americans in catch-up mode.
    The overall prediction for the Cup: Europe 17, U.S. 11.
    – Tim Cronin